Over the weekend I heard Ken Zweibel, the highly respected, former program manager of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) thin film Photo Voltaic (PV) R&D program and current and President of PrimeStar Solar of Golden, Colorado speak at a climate conference held at the Baker Institute (full disclosure: I am a part time employee of the Institute). Zweibel is one of the authors of A Solar Grand Plan an article published in the January issue of Scientific American.
Yesterday I met Arjun Makhijani, President of the Institute of Energy and Environmental Research (www.IEER.org) and author of "Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for US Energy Policy" available here for free download (or download the summary here).
Both men advocate departures from the current "normal" way of generating power -- burning coal or using radioactive materials to boil water. What gives me hope is that these two are just a small example of scientists and entrepreneurs looking at solar in new, potentially commercial ways. Unless there is a market opportunity for these alternative power generation scenarios to move forward, there will be little incentive for the status quo to change.
There are, of course, persuasive climatic and environmental reasons to advocate new solar, carbon free solutions. But these arguments haven't been compelling enough to incentivize infrastructure investments needed to make solar power generation a reality. The general public and investment community have not yet found strong enough reasons to act.
First Solar, a commercial manufacturer of PV modules designed for large scale, grid-connected solar power plants, has increased the efficiency of these modules so as to bring down the cost of manufacturing power. Their modules are expected to have an efficiency rating of 11.5% in 2010. The magic efficiency number is 14 percent. National Renewable Energy Laboratory modules are now up to 16.5 percent and rising. Lest we get too excited, the reality is that new storage and distribution solutions will need to be in place before solar energy becomes widely available.
Dr. Makhijani says that today's photovoltaic cells mounted over parking lots and on commercial rooftops would generate enough electricity for all of the nation's energy requirements, in spite of the low efficiency of today's PV technology. The challenge again is creating storage and distribution systems.
Perhaps the most intriguing new approach concerns nanosolar. Popular Science gave the technolgy green tech and innovation awards. Imagine having sheets of PV material to spread on your own rooftop -- PV material that can be made into virtually any building element. I think the good news here is that the race is on to create viable, cost efficient power solutions that leverage the sun's rays. Nanosolar shipped it's first "panel" in December, 2007 and may not be able to keep up with demand.
So these approaches give me great hope. Technology is advancing at a rapid pace. Storage and distribution issues will eventually be solved. But it will still take massive political will and viable commercial models to make solar power generation the norm in this country.
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